For Jefferson County ranchers and farmers who depend on water delivered through the North Unit Irrigation District, this fall carries a familiar sting: another year of reduced water supplies in what has become eight consecutive years of below-average allocations.
Wickiup Reservoir Heading for Critically Low Levels
Wickiup Reservoir — the main storage facility serving much of Central Oregon's agricultural water system — is expected to fall to extremely low levels this fall as water managers balance the competing demands of irrigation and required minimum flows for the threatened Oregon spotted frog in the Upper Deschutes River.
The North Unit Irrigation District set its 2026 water allotment at 1.3 acre-feet per acre, well below the typical full allotment of 2 to 2.25 acre-feet per acre.
"This is our eighth year of subpar patron allotments," said Josh Bailey, the district's manager. "It's very challenging."
The district plans to shut off irrigation deliveries on October 9 as it begins a series of construction projects. Once the shutoff takes effect, managers plan to step down releases from Wickiup through October, targeting a minimum release of approximately 103 cubic feet per second by October 16 — among the lowest flows the reservoir has seen in recent memory.
A Drought Year on Top of a Drought Decade
Jefferson County was included in Governor Tina Kotek's spring drought emergency declaration, which also covered Crook, Grant, Jackson, Morrow, and Wallowa counties. As of late September, an estimated 90 percent of Oregon remained under some level of drought conditions.
The summer of 2026 brought some of the lowest natural streamflows water managers have recorded in the Deschutes Basin, compounding the strain on a system that was already stretched thin entering the irrigation season. For farmers working under these conditions, the cutoff date of October 9 means making the most of a short remaining window.
What Drives the Drawdown
Jeremy Giffin, the Deschutes Basin watermaster, explained that the reservoir's trajectory this fall is shaped by both irrigation demand and legally mandated environmental flows. As weather cools and farmers' demand drops, managers will reduce outflows from Wickiup in a coordinated step-down, eventually reaching the minimum release required under the Deschutes Basin Habitat Conservation Plan.
The exact final level of the reservoir depends in part on weather: a colder fall that reduces late-season irrigation demand can shift the drawdown trajectory meaningfully, sometimes by millions of acre-feet.
Looking Toward Next Year
Water managers and farmers are watching early snowpack closely. The first snowfall in the Cascades and Ochoco Mountains will offer the earliest clues about whether 2027 water supplies might offer some relief after nearly a decade of shortfalls. Residents can track current reservoir storage levels and streamflow data through the Oregon Water Resources Department's online portal and the Bureau of Reclamation's water data system.